· Analysis updated 16:49 UTC
Nyva Vinnytsya vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Nyva Vinnytsya and 1.07 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives Nyva Vinnytsya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.1% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nyva Vinnytsya home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dynamo Kyiv away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nyva Vinnytsya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 27% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Nyva Vinnytsya and 1.07 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined 2.46 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Nyva Vinnytsya
- 2026-10-03T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Skala 1911 Stryi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dnister Zalishchyky · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinaz Vyshhorod · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Kyiv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil II · 4-1 (W)
Dynamo Kyiv
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Karpaty · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zorya Luhansk · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyva Vinnytsya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs LNZ Cherkasy · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.