· Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Nyva Vinnytsya vs Lisne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Nyva Vinnytsya and 0.68 for Lisne, a combined total of 1.79. That distribution gives Nyva Vinnytsya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nyva Vinnytsya win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nyva Vinnytsya home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lisne away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nyva Vinnytsya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 32% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Nyva Vinnytsya and 0.68 for Lisne, a combined 1.79 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.5%
- 0–016.6%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–010.3%
Recent form
Nyva Vinnytsya
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilkhivtsi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruh Lviv · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Skala 1911 Stryi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dnister Zalishchyky · 2-0 (W)
Lisne
- 2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skala 1911 Stryi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nyva Vinnytsya · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Polissya II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kulykiv · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Druha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bratslav Vinnytsia | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 1 | Karbon Cherkasy | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Dnister Zalishchyky | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Lozova | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Nyva Vinnytsya | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Rebel | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | Vilkhivtsi | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 4 | SC Poltava 2 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 5 | Podillya Khmelnytskyi | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 5 | Trostianets | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Nyva Ternopil II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 6 | Atlet | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Skala 1911 Stryi | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | Oleksandria II | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Dinaz Vyshhorod | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 8 | Metalurh Zaporizhya | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Ruh Lviv | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 9 | Penuel | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nyva Vinnytsya win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.