· Analysis updated 23:30 UTC
Nyva Vinnytsya vs Ruh Lviv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Nyva Vinnytsya and 1.07 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Nyva Vinnytsya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nyva Vinnytsya win
54.8% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nyva Vinnytsya home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ruh Lviv away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nyva Vinnytsya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 23% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Nyva Vinnytsya and 1.07 for Ruh Lviv, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–16.0%
Recent form
Nyva Vinnytsya
- 2026-10-03T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Skala 1911 Stryi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dnister Zalishchyky · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinaz Vyshhorod · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Kyiv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil II · 4-1 (W)
Ruh Lviv
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Vinnytsya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bratslav Vinnytsia · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Vilkhivtsi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyva Ternopil II · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · Nyva Vinnytsya 2-2 Ruh Lviv (Cup)
- 2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · Nyva Vinnytsya 2-1 Ruh Lviv (Druha Liga)
- 2017-05-08T14:00:00.000Z · Nyva Vinnytsya 2-0 Rukh Vynnyky (Druha Liga - Group A)
- 2016-10-01T13:30:00.000Z · Nyva Vinnytsya 0-3 Rukh Vynnyky (Druha Liga - Group A)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nyva Vinnytsya win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.