Nzoia Sugar vs Darajani Gogo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Nzoia Sugar and 1.10 for Darajani Gogo, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Nzoia Sugar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

71.0% probability

High confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nzoia Sugar home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Darajani Gogo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nzoia Sugar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Nzoia Sugar and 1.10 for Darajani Gogo, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Nzoia Sugar win45%

Draw26%

Darajani Gogo win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.5%
1–011.3%
2–19.0%
0–18.7%
2–08.1%

Recent form

Nzoia Sugar

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kibera Black Stars · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mombasa Elite · 0-1 (L)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortune Sacco · 3-1 (W)
2026-05-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Talanta · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Naivas · 0-1 (L)

Darajani Gogo

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nairobi City Stars · 3-0 (W)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kisumu All Stars · 2-1 (W)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gucha Stars · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-28T12:00:00.000Z · H vs MOFA · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vihiga United FC · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sofapaka	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Nairobi City Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Kariobangi Sharks	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Nzoia Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Naivas	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Kibera Black Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Talanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Kisumu All Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Fortune Sacco	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Soy United	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Equity Bank	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Luanda Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	MOFA	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Kibera Soccer	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Kabati Youth FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Gucha Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Mfalme	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Kiminini Combined	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	BB FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Spitfire FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.