· Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
O'Connor Knights vs Canberra Olympic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for O'Connor Knights and 2.35 for Canberra Olympic, a combined total of 4.23. That distribution gives Canberra Olympic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Canberra Olympic win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 2.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
O'Connor Knights home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Canberra Olympic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 31% / 20% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for O'Connor Knights and 2.35 for Canberra Olympic, a combined 4.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–16.4%
- 2–16.0%
- 1–35.9%
Recent form
O'Connor Knights
- 2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Queanbeyan City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-15T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Canberra White Eagles · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Canberra FC · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-08-01T07:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaro Panthers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Belconnen United · 1-1 (D)
Canberra Olympic
- 2026-08-22T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Brindabella · 5-4 (W)
- 2026-08-16T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Belconnen United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Cooma Tigers FC · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-01T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Tuggeranong United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Queanbeyan City · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-27T04:30:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 1-0 Canberra Olympic (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2026-05-13T09:30:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 1-3 Canberra Olympic (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2024-08-31T05:00:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 3-4 Canberra Olympic (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2024-07-06T05:00:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 3-0 Canberra Olympic (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2024-05-18T05:00:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 2-1 Canberra Olympic (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2023-07-29T05:00:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 2-1 Canberra Olympic (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2023-07-08T05:00:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 1-0 Canberra Olympic (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2023-04-15T05:00:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 0-2 Canberra Olympic (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2022-08-17T08:45:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 0-1 Canberra Olympic (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2022-06-11T05:00:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 1-1 Canberra Olympic (Capital Territory NPL)
Capital Territory NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canberra FC | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 52 |
| 2 | Monaro Panthers | 20 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 46 |
| 3 | Cooma Tigers FC | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 44 |
| 4 | Tuggeranong United | 20 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 42 |
| 5 | Queanbeyan City | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 6 | Canberra Juventus | 20 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 33 |
| 7 | Canberra Olympic | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 8 | O'Connor Knights | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -15 | 20 |
| 9 | Belconnen United | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 9 |
| 10 | Brindabella | 20 | 3 | 0 | 17 | -51 | 9 |
| 11 | Canberra White Eagles | 20 | 2 | 1 | 17 | -43 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Canberra Olympic win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.