· Analysis updated 05:18 UTC
O'Connor Knights vs Tuggeranong United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for O'Connor Knights and 2.28 for Tuggeranong United, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Tuggeranong United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tuggeranong United win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 2.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
O'Connor Knights home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tuggeranong United away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.7%
- 2–16.3%
- 1–35.8%
Recent form
O'Connor Knights
- 2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Queanbeyan City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-15T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Canberra White Eagles · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Canberra FC · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-08-01T07:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaro Panthers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Belconnen United · 1-1 (D)
Tuggeranong United
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Queanbeyan City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Canberra Juventus · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Brindabella · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-05T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Queanbeyan City · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Canberra Olympic · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-13T05:00:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 2-3 Tuggeranong United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2026-04-15T09:30:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 0-2 Tuggeranong United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2025-08-24T05:00:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 1-3 Tuggeranong United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2025-07-05T05:00:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 2-3 Tuggeranong United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2025-05-11T05:00:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 1-1 Tuggeranong United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2024-08-03T05:00:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 2-2 Tuggeranong United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2024-07-14T05:00:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 2-1 Tuggeranong United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2024-04-20T05:00:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 2-1 Tuggeranong United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2023-08-05T05:00:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 2-0 Tuggeranong United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2023-06-10T05:00:00.000Z · O'Connor Knights 3-0 Tuggeranong United (Capital Territory NPL)
Capital Territory NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canberra FC | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 52 |
| 2 | Monaro Panthers | 20 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 46 |
| 3 | Cooma Tigers FC | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 44 |
| 4 | Tuggeranong United | 20 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 42 |
| 5 | Queanbeyan City | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 6 | Canberra Juventus | 20 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 33 |
| 7 | Canberra Olympic | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 8 | O'Connor Knights | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -15 | 20 |
| 9 | Belconnen United | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 9 |
| 10 | Brindabella | 20 | 3 | 0 | 17 | -51 | 9 |
| 11 | Canberra White Eagles | 20 | 2 | 1 | 17 | -43 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tuggeranong United win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.