Campo Domingos Carrilho Patalino · Analysis updated 13:31 UTC
O Elvas vs AD Nogueirense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for O Elvas and 1.08 for AD Nogueirense, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives O Elvas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
O Elvas win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
O Elvas home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates O Elvas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 25% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.57 goals for O Elvas and 1.08 for AD Nogueirense, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
O Elvas
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs UD da Serra · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sertanense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs União de Leiria · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fazendense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs São Roque (Açores) · 9-0 (W)
AD Nogueirense
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs UD da Serra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Naval 1893 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fazendense · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sertanense · 1-1 (D)
- 2018-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanjoanense · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oliveira Hospital | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | UD da Serra | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Os Marialvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Mortágua | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | O Elvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Naval 1893 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | AD Nogueirense | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Atlético Malveira | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Fátima | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Alverca II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 | Nazarenos | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Fazendense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is O Elvas win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.