Estadio El Teniente · Referee Jose Cabero · Analysis updated 16:27 UTC
O'Higgins vs Palestino Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for O'Higgins and 1.58 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Palestino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
O'Higgins home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Palestino away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–07.2%
Recent form
O'Higgins
- 2026-08-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Recoleta · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestino · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Colo Colo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Limache · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · A vs D. La Serena · 2-1 (W)
Palestino
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs U. Catolica · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Concepcion · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Cobresal · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T23:00:00.000Z · A vs O'Higgins · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-18T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Huachipato · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T23:00:00.000Z · O'Higgins 0-1 Palestino (Primera División)
- 2026-06-07T22:00:00.000Z · O'Higgins 2-1 Palestino (Copa De La Liga)
- 2026-03-30T23:30:00.000Z · O'Higgins 3-1 Palestino (Copa De La Liga)
- 2026-02-28T23:30:00.000Z · O'Higgins 2-4 Palestino (Primera División)
- 2025-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · O'Higgins 2-1 Palestino (Primera División)
- 2025-04-20T19:00:00.000Z · O'Higgins 1-0 Palestino (Primera División)
- 2024-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · O'Higgins 1-4 Palestino (Primera División)
- 2024-03-09T23:30:00.000Z · O'Higgins 0-1 Palestino (Primera División)
- 2023-12-09T21:00:00.000Z · O'Higgins 0-1 Palestino (Primera División)
- 2023-05-19T19:30:00.000Z · O'Higgins 1-0 Palestino (Primera División)
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 54 |
| 2 | U. Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 42 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 36 |
| 5 | Palestino | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 36 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 33 |
| 7 | Nublense | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | -3 | 32 |
| 8 | Concepción | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | -1 | 31 |
| 9 | D. La Serena | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | -4 | 30 |
| 10 | Coquimbo Unido | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 29 |
| 11 | A. Italiano | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | -5 | 28 |
| 12 | Huachipato | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 28 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | -8 | 27 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 24 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | -22 | 22 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -21 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.