Estadio El Teniente · Referee Franco Esteban Jimenez Lazo · Analysis updated 16:41 UTC
O'Higgins vs Union La Calera Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for O'Higgins and 1.05 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives O'Higgins the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
O'Higgins win
46.9% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
O'Higgins home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Union La Calera away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates O'Higgins to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 26% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for O'Higgins and 1.05 for Union La Calera, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–011.8%
- 2–19.1%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–18.4%
Recent form
O'Higgins
- 2026-10-10T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Huachipato · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Concepción · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Concepción · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 2-1 (W)
Union La Calera
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs U. Catolica · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-23T23:30:00.000Z · H vs U. Catolica · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Limache · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:45:00.000Z · A vs O'Higgins · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T22:15:00.000Z · H vs D. La Serena · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 54 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | U. Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 37 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 7 | Coquimbo Unido | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 32 |
| 8 | Concepción | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | -1 | 32 |
| 9 | Nublense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | -9 | 32 |
| 10 | Huachipato | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 31 |
| 11 | D. La Serena | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | -5 | 30 |
| 12 | A. Italiano | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | -5 | 28 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 27 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -10 | 25 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -22 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -21 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is O'Higgins win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.