Laney College Football Stadium · Referee E. Carvajal · Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Oakland Roots vs Phoenix Rising Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Oakland Roots and 1.20 for Phoenix Rising, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Oakland Roots the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oakland Roots home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Phoenix Rising away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.7%
- 0–19.9%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 49.2% vs market 41.1%, edge +8.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 41.1% | 49.2% | 2.03 | +8.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.6% | 73.0% | 1.37 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 38.8% | 38.9% | 2.57 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.62 | 34.1% | 34.1% | 2.93 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.1% | 27.0% | 3.70 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 66.4% | 65.9% | 1.52 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.50 | 62.0% | 61.1% | 1.64 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 58.9% | 50.8% | 1.97 | -8.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Oakland Roots
- 2026-10-25T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Sacramento Republic · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tulsa · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T02:00:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Springs · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Phoenix Rising · 3-0 (W)
Phoenix Rising
- 2026-10-25T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Lexington · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-18T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Orange County SC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Las Vegas Lights · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T22:00:00.000Z · A vs New Mexico United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Oakland Roots · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · Oakland Roots 3-0 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
- 2026-06-21T02:30:00.000Z · Oakland Roots 4-3 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
- 2026-03-22T02:00:00.000Z · Oakland Roots 2-2 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
- 2025-09-28T02:00:00.000Z · Oakland Roots 3-3 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
- 2025-07-13T02:00:00.000Z · Oakland Roots 1-2 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
- 2024-10-13T02:00:00.000Z · Oakland Roots 0-1 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
- 2024-03-24T02:00:00.000Z · Oakland Roots 0-1 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
- 2023-06-25T02:00:00.000Z · Oakland Roots 1-1 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
- 2023-06-11T02:30:00.000Z · Oakland Roots 2-2 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
- 2022-09-11T02:30:00.000Z · Oakland Roots 2-0 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 61 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 53 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 51 |
| 4 | Louisville City | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 47 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 45 |
| 6 | Hartford Athletic | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 43 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 42 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -6 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | -10 | 31 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | -6 | 30 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -29 | 21 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 30 | 3 | 5 | 22 | -46 | 14 |
| 1 | New Mexico United | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 52 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 14 | 51 |
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 50 |
| 4 | Lexington | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 48 |
| 5 | Colorado Springs | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 45 |
| 7 | FC Tulsa | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 43 |
| 8 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | -1 | 40 |
| 9 | Orange County SC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | -1 | 38 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | -20 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.