Jack Edwards Reserve · Analysis updated 14:12 UTC
Oakleigh Cannons vs Sydney Olympic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.34 expected goals for Oakleigh Cannons and 1.34 for Sydney Olympic, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Oakleigh Cannons the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oakleigh Cannons win
59.6% probability
Expected goals
2.34 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oakleigh Cannons home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sydney Olympic away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oakleigh Cannons to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 19% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.34 goals for Oakleigh Cannons and 1.34 for Sydney Olympic, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–17.2%
- 2–06.9%
- 2–26.2%
Recent form
Oakleigh Cannons
- 2026-10-24T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Marconi Stallions · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-16T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Sydney Olympic · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Melbourne City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T05:30:00.000Z · H vs Avondale · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs South Melbourne · 2-1 (W)
Sydney Olympic
- 2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Sydney FC U23 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Marconi Stallions · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-15T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Sydney United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T05:30:00.000Z · A vs UNSW · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T06:00:00.000Z · H vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Australian Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Melbourne | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 1 | Broadmeadow Magic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 1 | Bayswater City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 1 | Wollongong Wolves | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 2 | Sutherland Sharks | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Wests APIA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Oakleigh Cannons | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Lions | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Sydney United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Avondale | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Marconi Stallions | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 3 | South Hobart | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Canberra FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Adelaide City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Sydney Olympic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 4 | Preston Lions | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oakleigh Cannons win, at 59.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.