Terrain Synthétique Woiwer · Analysis updated 02:32 UTC
Obercorn vs Lorentzweiler Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Obercorn and 1.68 for Lorentzweiler, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives Obercorn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.7% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Obercorn home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lorentzweiler away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Obercorn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 22% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Obercorn and 1.68 for Lorentzweiler, a combined 3.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.4%
Recent form
Obercorn
- 2025-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Swift Hesperange · 0-3 (L)
- 2024-10-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Norden · 1-0 (W)
- 2023-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lorentzweiler · 1-4 (L)
- 2023-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior Grevels · 5-0 (W)
Lorentzweiler
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Erpeldange · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-07-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Résidence Walferdange · 3-5 (L)
- 2025-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodange 91 · 2-4 (L)
- 2025-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tricolore Gasperich · 1-0 (W)
- 2024-10-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Rosport · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.