· Analysis updated 13:13 UTC
Oberneuland vs Hemelingen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Oberneuland and 3.73 for Hemelingen, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Hemelingen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 88%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 88% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hemelingen win
88.4% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 3.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oberneuland home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hemelingen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
12%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
96%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–39.6%
- 0–48.9%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–37.4%
- 1–46.9%
Recent form
Oberneuland
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen III · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Geestemünde · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Blumenthaler SV · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hemelingen · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Vatan Sport · 0-3 (L)
Hemelingen
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Aumund-Vegesack · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Oberneuland · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eiche Horn · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwachhausen · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Woltmershausen · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-23T17:30:00.000Z · Oberneuland 0-6 Hemelingen (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2026-04-02T17:30:00.000Z · Oberneuland 0-4 Hemelingen (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2025-08-24T12:00:00.000Z · Oberneuland 2-2 Hemelingen (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2025-05-16T17:15:00.000Z · Oberneuland 0-3 Hemelingen (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2024-12-01T13:00:00.000Z · Oberneuland 0-6 Hemelingen (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2024-04-28T11:00:00.000Z · Oberneuland 2-3 Hemelingen (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2023-11-10T18:30:00.000Z · Oberneuland 2-8 Hemelingen (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2023-05-05T17:30:00.000Z · Oberneuland 3-3 Hemelingen (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2022-12-04T12:00:00.000Z · Oberneuland 3-2 Hemelingen (Oberliga - Bremen)
Oberliga - Bremen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hemelingen | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 28 |
| 2 | Blumenthaler SV | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 27 |
| 3 | Brinkumer SV | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 27 |
| 4 | OSC Bremerhaven | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 22 |
| 5 | Aumund-Vegesack | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 |
| 6 | Geestemünde | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 7 | Schwachhausen | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 14 |
| 8 | Vatan Sport | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 9 | Union Bremen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Eiche Horn | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -11 | 12 |
| 11 | Leher TS | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| 12 | Grohn | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -20 | 10 |
| 13 | BTS Neustadt | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 14 | Oberneuland | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -29 | 5 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen III | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 4 |
| 16 | Woltmershausen | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -27 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hemelingen win, at 88.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 88% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.