Oberwart vs Scheiblingkirchen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.27 expected goals for Oberwart and 1.33 for Scheiblingkirchen, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Oberwart the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Oberwart win

58.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.27 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Oberwart home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Scheiblingkirchen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oberwart to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 20% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.27 goals for Oberwart and 1.33 for Scheiblingkirchen, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Oberwart win59%

Draw20%

Scheiblingkirchen win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

2–19.4%
1–18.2%
3–17.1%
2–07.1%
1–06.2%

Recent form

Oberwart

2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Parndorf · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Krems / Rehberg · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Donau · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Leobendorf · 1-0 (W)

Scheiblingkirchen

2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Gloggnitz · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiener Viktoria · 1-5 (L)
2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiener SC · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mattersburg SV 2020 · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Favoritner AC · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Ost table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	12	8	1	3	18	25
2	Wiener SC	12	7	2	3	15	23
3	Oberwart	12	7	2	3	8	23
4	Traiskirchen	12	6	3	3	4	21
5	Wiener Viktoria	12	6	2	4	6	20
6	Krems / Rehberg	12	6	2	4	4	20
7	Fach-Donaufeld	12	6	2	4	1	20
8	Scheiblingkirchen	12	5	4	3	-1	19
9	Leobendorf	12	5	2	5	2	17
10	Mattersburg SV 2020	12	5	1	6	-4	16
11	Parndorf	12	4	3	5	0	15
12	Favoritner AC	12	4	1	7	-6	13
13	Gloggnitz	12	3	4	5	-7	13
14	Donau	12	2	6	4	-4	12
15	SV Horn	12	3	2	7	-3	11
16	Wienerberg	12	0	1	11	-33	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Oberwart win, at 58.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.