· Analysis updated 15:21 UTC
Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.45 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.28 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 1.72. That distribution gives Livyi Bereh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Livyi Bereh win
57.3% probability
Expected goals
0.45 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Livyi Bereh away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Livyi Bereh to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 13% / 30% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.45 goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.28 for Livyi Bereh, a combined 1.72 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–122.7%
- 0–017.8%
- 0–214.5%
- 1–110.2%
- 1–08.0%
Recent form
Obolon'-Brovar
- 2026-09-18T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Chornomorets · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs LNZ Cherkasy · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Kharkiv · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-28T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kolos Kovalivka · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Karpaty · 0-2 (L)
Livyi Bereh
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Polessya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T10:40:00.000Z · A vs Chornomorets · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Karpaty · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-21T13:00:00.000Z · Obolon'-Brovar 2-2 Livyi Bereh (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-05-23T12:30:00.000Z · Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Livyi Bereh (Premier League)
- 2024-11-30T16:00:00.000Z · Obolon'-Brovar 1-1 Livyi Bereh (Premier League)
- 2024-06-02T13:00:00.000Z · Obolon'-Brovar 1-1 Livyi Bereh (Premier League)
- 2024-05-29T15:00:00.000Z · Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Livyi Bereh (Premier League)
- 2023-07-12T14:00:00.000Z · Obolon'-Brovar 0-2 Livyi Bereh (Friendlies Clubs)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Polessya | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Dynamo Kyiv | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Veres Rivne | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Bukovyna | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Obolon'-Brovar | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 15 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Livyi Bereh win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 26% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.