OCPAM vs Amiens SC II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for OCPAM and 0.94 for Amiens SC II, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives OCPAM the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

OCPAM win

52.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.59 – 0.94

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

OCPAM home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Amiens SC II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates OCPAM to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 25% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for OCPAM and 0.94 for Amiens SC II, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

OCPAM win53%

Draw25%

Amiens SC II win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–012.6%
1–111.9%
2–010.0%
2–19.5%
0–07.9%

Recent form

OCPAM

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Croix Football IC · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gazelec FC Ajaccio · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-25T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Le Pays du Valois · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Metz II · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Reims II · 2-0 (W)

Amiens SC II

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gazelec FC Ajaccio · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Pays du Valois · 0-5 (L)
2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Metz II · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Reims II · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympique St Quentin · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National 3 - Group E table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lille II	26	15	3	8	22	48
2	Croix Football IC	26	14	4	8	17	46
3	Le Pays du Valois	26	13	7	6	16	45
4	OCPAM	26	12	5	9	1	40
5	Vimy	26	11	6	9	5	39
6	Olympique St Quentin	26	10	7	9	2	37
7	Drancy	26	10	5	11	6	35
8	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	26	9	7	10	-4	34
9	Metz II	26	10	3	13	-5	33
10	Balagne	26	9	6	11	-1	33
11	Neuilly sur Marne	26	8	7	11	-12	31
12	Pays de Cassel	26	7	8	11	-15	29
13	Amiens SC II	26	8	5	13	-13	29
14	Reims II	26	5	9	12	-19	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is OCPAM win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.