· Analysis updated 12:39 UTC
OCPAM vs Gazelec FC Ajaccio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for OCPAM and 0.85 for Gazelec FC Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives OCPAM the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
OCPAM win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
OCPAM home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gazelec FC Ajaccio away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates OCPAM to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 26% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for OCPAM and 0.85 for Gazelec FC Ajaccio, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.1%
Recent form
OCPAM
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Croix Football IC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gazelec FC Ajaccio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-25T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Le Pays du Valois · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Metz II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Reims II · 2-0 (W)
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Amiens SC II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs OCPAM · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-25T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Balagne · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Neuilly sur Marne · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Drancy · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 3 - Group E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lille II | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 48 |
| 2 | Croix Football IC | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 46 |
| 3 | Le Pays du Valois | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 45 |
| 4 | OCPAM | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 40 |
| 5 | Vimy | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 39 |
| 6 | Olympique St Quentin | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 37 |
| 7 | Drancy | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 35 |
| 8 | Gazelec FC Ajaccio | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | -4 | 34 |
| 9 | Metz II | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | -5 | 33 |
| 10 | Balagne | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -1 | 33 |
| 11 | Neuilly sur Marne | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 31 |
| 12 | Pays de Cassel | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | -15 | 29 |
| 13 | Amiens SC II | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | -13 | 29 |
| 14 | Reims II | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -19 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is OCPAM win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.