Skagerak Arena · Analysis updated 20:21 UTC
ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.76 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.34. That distribution gives Sandefjord the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.1% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ODD Ballklubb home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sandefjord away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sandefjord to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 35% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.76 for Sandefjord, a combined 3.34 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.3%
Recent form
ODD Ballklubb
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Strommen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sogndal · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bryne · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs hodd · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Egersund · 5-1 (W)
Sandefjord
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Flint · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Start · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodo/Glimt · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Viking · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.