Kalinga Stadium · Referee A. Krishnan · Analysis updated 09:00 UTC
Odisha vs Bengaluru Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Odisha and 1.75 for Bengaluru, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Bengaluru the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bengaluru win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Odisha home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bengaluru away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.8%
- 1–111.2%
- 0–210.3%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.7%
Recent form
Odisha
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs NorthEast United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Kashi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Minerva Punjab · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jamshedpur · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Minerva Punjab · 2-3 (L)
Bengaluru
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chennaiyin · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Delhi · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-16T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Chennaiyin · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jamshedpur · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Odisha · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-04T14:00:00.000Z · Odisha 1-1 Bengaluru (Indian Super League)
- 2025-01-22T14:00:00.000Z · Odisha 3-2 Bengaluru (Indian Super League)
- 2024-12-01T14:00:00.000Z · Odisha 4-2 Bengaluru (Indian Super League)
- 2024-03-30T11:30:00.000Z · Odisha 0-0 Bengaluru (Indian Super League)
- 2024-01-12T14:00:00.000Z · Odisha 1-0 Bengaluru (AIFF Super Cup)
- 2023-10-31T14:30:00.000Z · Odisha 3-2 Bengaluru (Indian Super League)
- 2023-04-25T13:30:00.000Z · Odisha 2-1 Bengaluru (AIFF Super Cup)
- 2023-01-14T12:00:00.000Z · Odisha 1-3 Bengaluru (Indian Super League)
- 2022-10-27T14:00:00.000Z · Odisha 1-0 Bengaluru (Indian Super League)
- 2022-02-21T14:00:00.000Z · Odisha 1-2 Bengaluru (Indian Super League)
Indian Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NorthEast United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Minerva Punjab | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | East Bengal II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 4 | Bengaluru | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Kerala Blasters | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 6 | ATK Mohun Bagan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Churchill Brothers | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 8 | Odisha | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 9 | Mumbai City | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 10 | Goa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Chennaiyin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 12 | Inter Kashi | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 13 | SC Delhi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bengaluru win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.