· Analysis updated 17:43 UTC
Odishi 1919 vs Samtredia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Odishi 1919 and 1.68 for Samtredia, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Samtredia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Odishi 1919 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Samtredia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Samtredia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 33% / 24% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Odishi 1919 and 1.68 for Samtredia, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.7%
- 0–17.5%
- 2–26.4%
Recent form
Odishi 1919
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Merani Martvili · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Poti · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Gareji · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Telavi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Aragvi Dusheti · 1-0 (W)
Samtredia
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rustavi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Merani Martvili · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Poti · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gareji · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Telavi · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Erovnuli Liga 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareji | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 54 |
| 2 | Shturmi | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
| 3 | Telavi | 30 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 47 |
| 4 | Merani Martvili | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | -6 | 40 |
| 5 | Samtredia | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 40 |
| 6 | Aragvi Dusheti | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | -9 | 39 |
| 7 | Odishi 1919 | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | -8 | 38 |
| 8 | Sioni | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -2 | 36 |
| 9 | Gori | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 33 |
| 10 | Kolkheti Poti | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 32 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.