Odra Opole vs Warta Poznań Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Odra Opole and 1.93 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Warta Poznań the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Warta Poznań win

54.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Odra Opole home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Warta Poznań away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Odra Opole win24%

Draw22%

Warta Poznań win54%

Double chance 1X

46%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.1%
1–29.8%
0–18.5%
0–28.1%
1–36.3%

Recent form

Odra Opole

2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Gornik Zabrze · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nieciecza · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Rzeszów · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Stal Mielec · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-01T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Wisla Krakow · 2-1 (W)

Warta Poznań

2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Chrobry Głogów · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Arka Gdynia · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-30T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Miedz Legnica · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · Odra Opole 3-1 Warta Poznań (I Liga)
2025-05-18T10:00:00.000Z · Odra Opole 0-1 Warta Poznań (I Liga)
2024-11-09T16:30:00.000Z · Odra Opole 0-0 Warta Poznań (I Liga)
2020-06-13T13:10:00.000Z · Odra Opole 2-0 Warta Poznań (I Liga)
2019-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · Odra Opole 0-3 Warta Poznań (I Liga)
2019-04-28T14:00:00.000Z · Odra Opole 1-2 Warta Poznań (I Liga)
2018-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · Odra Opole 2-1 Warta Poznań (I Liga)

I Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	11	6	3	2	10	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	12	6	3	3	5	21
3	Nieciecza	12	6	2	4	2	20
4	Lechia Gdansk	12	6	1	5	3	19
5	Miedz Legnica	12	5	3	4	7	18
6	Warta Poznań	11	6	0	5	4	18
7	Ruch Chorzów	11	5	3	3	3	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	5	3	3	3	18
9	Polonia Bytom	12	4	6	2	0	18
10	Stal Rzeszów	11	5	2	4	-5	17
11	Arka Gdynia	12	4	2	6	0	14
12	Chrobry Głogów	12	3	4	5	-2	13
13	Stal Mielec	12	3	4	5	-11	13
14	Pogoń Siedlce	11	3	3	5	-2	12
15	Odra Opole	11	3	3	5	-4	12
16	Puszcza Niepołomice	12	4	0	8	-4	12
17	Podbeskidzie	11	1	8	2	-2	11
18	Unia Skierniewice	12	3	2	7	-7	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Warta Poznań win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.