Theodoros Vardinogiannis Stadium · Referee Alexandros Tsakalidis, Greece · Analysis updated 21:31 UTC
OFI vs Asteras Tripolis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for OFI and 0.63 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives OFI the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
OFI win
71.3% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
OFI home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Asteras Tripolis away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates OFI to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 19% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for OFI and 0.63 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.5%
- 1–013.9%
- 3–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.7%
Recent form
OFI
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Tripolis · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:45:00.000Z · H vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nestos Chrisoupolis · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Kifisia · 2-0 (W)
Asteras Tripolis
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Niki Volos · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AEK Athens FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 14 |
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | PAOK | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 10 |
| 6 | OFI | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Iraklis 1908 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Panetolikos | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Kifisia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Kalamata | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is OFI win, at 71.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.