OFK Vršac vs Dubočica Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for OFK Vršac and 0.80 for Dubočica, a combined total of 2.02. That distribution gives OFK Vršac the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

OFK Vršac win

45.8% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.22 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

OFK Vršac home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dubočica away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates OFK Vršac to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 30% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for OFK Vršac and 0.80 for Dubočica, a combined 2.02 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

OFK Vršac win46%

Draw30%

Dubočica win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals60%

Over 2.5 goals33%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–016.2%
0–013.3%
1–113.0%
0–110.7%
2–09.8%

Recent form

OFK Vršac

2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Semendrija 1924 · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs OFK Bor 1919 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Napredak · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Grafičar · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · 0-2 (L)

Dubočica

2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Ub · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Javor · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs TSC Backa Topola · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Teleoptik · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Prva Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	TSC Backa Topola	15	9	6	0	19	33
2	Javor	15	8	6	1	19	30
3	Borac Cacak	15	9	3	3	7	30
4	OFK Vršac	15	8	2	5	4	26
5	Semendrija 1924	15	7	4	4	6	25
6	Dubočica	15	6	4	5	-1	22
7	Napredak	15	6	4	5	-1	22
8	Loznica	15	4	8	3	-2	20
9	FK Vozdovac	15	5	4	6	1	19
10	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	15	5	4	6	-4	19
11	Naftagas	15	4	6	5	5	18
12	Metalac GM	15	5	3	7	-4	18
13	Jedinstvo Ub	15	4	2	9	-8	14
14	Teleoptik	15	3	4	8	-8	13
15	Grafičar	15	3	2	10	-11	11
16	OFK Bor 1919	15	2	2	11	-22	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is OFK Vršac win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.