· Referee A. Griscenko · Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for Ogre United and 1.76 for BFC Daugavpils, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives BFC Daugavpils the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
BFC Daugavpils win
56.7% probability
Expected goals
0.94 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ogre United home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BFC Daugavpils away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BFC Daugavpils to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 20% / 23% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for Ogre United and 1.76 for BFC Daugavpils, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.9%
- 1–111.1%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.8%
Recent form
Ogre United
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Daugavpils · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Super Nova · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Auda · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Liepaja · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 1-2 (L)
BFC Daugavpils
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ogre United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Liepaja · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rīgas FS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Riga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Auda · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Virsliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 32 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 55 | 80 |
| 2 | Riga | 32 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 58 | 76 |
| 3 | Auda | 32 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 64 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | -3 | 43 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 42 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 32 | 11 | 5 | 16 | -14 | 38 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | -19 | 32 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -32 | 26 |
| 9 | Tukums | 32 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -19 | 24 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 32 | 4 | 6 | 22 | -47 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is BFC Daugavpils win, at 56.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.