· Analysis updated 14:37 UTC
Oguzsport vs Făleşti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Oguzsport and 0.67 for Făleşti, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Oguzsport the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oguzsport win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oguzsport home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Făleşti away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oguzsport to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 31% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Oguzsport and 0.67 for Făleşti, a combined 1.83 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.7%
- 0–016.1%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–010.9%
- 0–110.7%
Recent form
Oguzsport
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Făleşti · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC National Ialoveni · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Bardar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Vulturii Cutezători · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Stăuceni · 0-1 (L)
Făleşti
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Stăuceni · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC National Ialoveni · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Oguzsport · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Bardar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-01T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Bardar · 3-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iskra | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 22 |
| 1 | Oguzsport | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | Vulturii Cutezători | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 2 | FC Stăuceni | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | FCM Ungheni | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | Făleşti | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Zimbru II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 4 | FC National Ialoveni | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 5 | Univer Comrat | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 5 | Victoria Bardar | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 7 |
| 6 | Spartanii Selemet | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oguzsport win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.