· Analysis updated 08:01 UTC
Oguzsport vs Victoria Bardar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Oguzsport and 0.55 for Victoria Bardar, a combined total of 1.58. That distribution gives Oguzsport the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 21% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oguzsport win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 0.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oguzsport home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Victoria Bardar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–021.2%
- 0–020.7%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–010.9%
Recent form
Oguzsport
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Bardar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Stăuceni · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Făleşti · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC National Ialoveni · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Bardar · 1-1 (D)
Victoria Bardar
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Oguzsport · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC National Ialoveni · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Stăuceni · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Făleşti · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oguzsport · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-31T15:00:00.000Z · Oguzsport 1-0 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
- 2026-04-03T13:00:00.000Z · Oguzsport 0-0 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
- 2025-11-21T11:00:00.000Z · Oguzsport 1-2 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
- 2025-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · Oguzsport 2-2 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
- 2025-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · Oguzsport 3-0 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iskra | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 22 |
| 1 | Oguzsport | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | Vulturii Cutezători | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 2 | FC Stăuceni | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | FCM Ungheni | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | Făleşti | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Zimbru II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 4 | FC National Ialoveni | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 5 | Univer Comrat | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 5 | Victoria Bardar | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 7 |
| 6 | Spartanii Selemet | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oguzsport win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 21%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.