Den Dreef · Referee J. Vergoote · Analysis updated 14:48 UTC
OH Leuven vs Club Brugge KV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.69 expected goals for OH Leuven and 2.06 for Club Brugge KV, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Club Brugge KV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Club Brugge KV win
69.5% probability
Expected goals
0.69 – 2.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
OH Leuven home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Club Brugge KV away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.6%
- 0–113.2%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–39.3%
- 1–19.1%
Recent form
OH Leuven
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs RAAL La Louvière · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cercle Brugge · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:15:00.000Z · A vs SK Beveren · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gent · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Standard Liege · 1-2 (L)
Club Brugge KV
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs RAAL La Louvière · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Genk · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Antwerp · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T18:45:00.000Z · OH Leuven 0-3 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2026-02-21T17:15:00.000Z · OH Leuven 1-2 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-12-03T19:30:00.000Z · OH Leuven 1-2 Club Brugge KV (Cup)
- 2025-10-18T16:15:00.000Z · OH Leuven 0-1 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-02-08T15:00:00.000Z · OH Leuven 0-1 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-01-07T19:45:00.000Z · OH Leuven 0-3 Club Brugge KV (Cup)
- 2024-11-02T17:15:00.000Z · OH Leuven 0-1 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2024-03-10T15:00:00.000Z · OH Leuven 1-3 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-11-26T15:00:00.000Z · OH Leuven 0-1 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2022-12-26T12:30:00.000Z · OH Leuven 1-1 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | KVC Westerlo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | Zulte Waregem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Lommel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Club Brugge KV win, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.