· Analysis updated 11:54 UTC
OH Leuven vs Lommel United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.37 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives OH Leuven the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
OH Leuven home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lommel United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates OH Leuven to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for OH Leuven and 1.37 for Lommel United, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
OH Leuven
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs RAAL La Louvière · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cercle Brugge · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:15:00.000Z · A vs SK Beveren · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gent · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Standard Liege · 1-2 (L)
Lommel United
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs KV Mechelen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Union St. Gilloise · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Club Brugge KV · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cercle Brugge · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KVC Westerlo · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.