· Analysis updated 11:01 UTC
Ohrid vs Sloga Vinica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for Ohrid and 0.77 for Sloga Vinica, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Ohrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ohrid win
76.1% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ohrid home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sloga Vinica away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ohrid to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 15% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.58 goals for Ohrid and 0.77 for Sloga Vinica, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.6%
- 3–010.0%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 3–17.7%
Recent form
Ohrid
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Rabotnicki · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Makedonija GjP · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Akademija Pandev · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Detonit Plachkovica · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Pelister · 0-1 (L)
Sloga Vinica
- 2026-05-23T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ohrid · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-05-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Prespa Resen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sasa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Novaci · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bregalnica Štip · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | FK Rabotnicki | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Pelister | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Akademija Pandev | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 15 |
| 5 | Teteks | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Belasica | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Kamjani | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Makedonija GjP | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Kozuv Gevgelija | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Novaci | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Detonit Plachkovica | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Gorno Lisiče | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Osogovo | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Shkupi 1927 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ohrid win, at 76.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.