Stade Marcel-Billard · Analysis updated 06:33 UTC
Oissel vs Sainte Geneviève Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Oissel and 1.29 for Sainte Geneviève, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Oissel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oissel home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oissel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 26% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Oissel and 1.29 for Sainte Geneviève, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Oissel
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Quevilly · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs C' Chartres · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sainte Geneviève · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Havre Caucriauville · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs St Ouen l'Aumône · 1-1 (D)
Sainte Geneviève
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 3 - Group D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Colombes 92 | 26 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 33 | 56 |
| 2 | Aubervilliers | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 45 |
| 3 | Bastia II | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 43 |
| 4 | Linas-Montlhery | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | C' Chartres | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 38 |
| 6 | Versailles II | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 38 |
| 7 | Oissel | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | -9 | 36 |
| 8 | Sainte Geneviève | 26 | 10 | 2 | 14 | -5 | 32 |
| 9 | Caen II | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 10 | Havre Caucriauville | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 30 |
| 11 | Trouville Deauville | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | -10 | 29 |
| 12 | St Ouen l'Aumône | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -23 | 28 |
| 13 | Dives-Cabourg | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Brétigny Foot | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -15 | 23 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.