Resonac Dome Oita · Analysis updated 12:32 UTC
Oita Trinita vs Albirex Niigata Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Oita Trinita and 0.92 for Albirex Niigata, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Oita Trinita the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oita Trinita win
56.4% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oita Trinita home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Albirex Niigata away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.2%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.0%
Recent form
Oita Trinita
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Montedio Yamagata · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Consadole Sapporo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Omiya Ardija · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Imabari · 1-1 (D)
Albirex Niigata
- 2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Oita Trinita · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Shonan Bellmare · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Tokushima Vortis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Blaublitz Akita · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · Oita Trinita 5-1 Albirex Niigata (J2 League)
- 2022-09-03T09:00:00.000Z · Oita Trinita 1-0 Albirex Niigata (J2 League)
- 2022-06-11T10:00:00.000Z · Oita Trinita 1-2 Albirex Niigata (J2 League)
- 2018-08-05T10:00:00.000Z · Oita Trinita 4-0 Albirex Niigata (J2 League)
- 2018-05-06T05:00:00.000Z · Oita Trinita 2-1 Albirex Niigata (J2 League)
- 2013-11-10T07:00:00.000Z · Oita Trinita 1-3 Albirex Niigata (J1 League)
- 2013-10-13T04:00:00.000Z · Oita Trinita 1-0 Albirex Niigata (Emperor Cup)
- 2013-05-18T05:00:00.000Z · Oita Trinita 3-2 Albirex Niigata (J1 League)
- 2013-03-20T04:00:00.000Z · Oita Trinita 1-1 Albirex Niigata (J-League Cup)
J2 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 27 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 26 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Omiya Ardija | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 6 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Oita Trinita | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Shonan Bellmare | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 9 | Sagan Tosu | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 | Tokushima Vortis | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 11 | Consadole Sapporo | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Iwaki | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 13 | Blaublitz Akita | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 14 | Fujieda MYFC | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 15 | Jubilo Iwata | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 16 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 14 |
| 17 | Montedio Yamagata | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -2 | 13 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 12 |
| 19 | Imabari | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oita Trinita win, at 56.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.