Resonac Dome Oita · Referee R. Tanaka · Analysis updated 00:53 UTC
Oita Trinita vs Iwaki Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Oita Trinita and 0.96 for Iwaki, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives Oita Trinita the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oita Trinita win
52.4% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oita Trinita home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Iwaki away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oita Trinita to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 25% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Oita Trinita and 0.96 for Iwaki, a combined 2.56 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.3%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.7%
Recent form
Oita Trinita
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Montedio Yamagata · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Consadole Sapporo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Omiya Ardija · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Imabari · 1-1 (D)
Iwaki
- 2026-10-11T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Consadole Sapporo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Vegalta Sendai · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagan Tosu · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J2 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 27 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 26 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Shonan Bellmare | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Omiya Ardija | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Oita Trinita | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | Iwaki | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 17 |
| 10 | Sagan Tosu | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Tokushima Vortis | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 | Consadole Sapporo | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Blaublitz Akita | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 14 | Jubilo Iwata | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Fujieda MYFC | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 16 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 14 |
| 17 | Montedio Yamagata | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -2 | 13 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 12 |
| 19 | Imabari | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oita Trinita win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.