Oita Trinita vs Vanraure Hachinohe Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Oita Trinita and 0.60 for Vanraure Hachinohe, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Oita Trinita the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Oita Trinita win

66.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.79 – 0.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Oita Trinita home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vanraure Hachinohe away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oita Trinita to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 22% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for Oita Trinita and 0.60 for Vanraure Hachinohe, a combined 2.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Oita Trinita win66%

Draw22%

Vanraure Hachinohe win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

34%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

1–016.4%
2–014.7%
1–19.8%
0–09.2%
3–08.8%

Recent form

Oita Trinita

2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Montedio Yamagata · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Consadole Sapporo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Omiya Ardija · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Imabari · 1-1 (D)

Vanraure Hachinohe

2026-09-18T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Shonan Bellmare · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Fujieda MYFC · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-02T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi City · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-29T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J2 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	13	8	3	2	11	27
2	Albirex Niigata	13	8	2	3	-2	26
3	Kataller Toyama	13	6	4	3	11	22
4	Yokohama FC	13	6	4	3	9	22
5	Shonan Bellmare	13	5	7	1	3	22
6	Omiya Ardija	13	5	6	2	7	21
7	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	13	5	5	3	3	20
8	Oita Trinita	13	4	7	2	7	19
9	Iwaki	13	5	2	6	1	17
10	Sagan Tosu	13	5	2	6	-1	17
11	Tokushima Vortis	13	5	2	6	-2	17
12	Consadole Sapporo	13	5	2	6	-3	17
13	Blaublitz Akita	13	4	4	5	0	16
14	Jubilo Iwata	13	4	4	5	-1	16
15	Fujieda MYFC	13	3	6	4	1	15
16	Vanraure Hachinohe	13	4	2	7	-12	14
17	Montedio Yamagata	13	4	1	8	-2	13
18	Tochigi City	13	3	3	7	-2	12
19	Imabari	13	3	2	8	-11	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	13	3	2	8	-17	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Oita Trinita win, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.