Okzhetpes vs Ordabasy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Okzhetpes and 1.73 for Ordabasy, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Ordabasy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ordabasy win

47.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Okzhetpes home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ordabasy away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Okzhetpes win29%

Draw24%

Ordabasy win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.9%
1–29.4%
0–18.4%
0–27.2%
2–17.1%

Recent form

Okzhetpes

2026-09-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhenys · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Irtysh · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ordabasy · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaisar · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atyrau · 2-0 (W)

Ordabasy

2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atyrau · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Astana · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Okzhetpes · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyzyl-Zhar · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Altay · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · Okzhetpes 2-1 Ordabasy (Premier League)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · Okzhetpes 1-2 Ordabasy (Premier League)
2025-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · Okzhetpes 1-7 Ordabasy (Premier League)
2025-06-21T15:30:00.000Z · Okzhetpes 0-1 Ordabasy (Premier League)
2023-07-10T14:00:00.000Z · Okzhetpes 0-4 Ordabasy (Premier League)
2023-05-21T15:00:00.000Z · Okzhetpes 0-1 Ordabasy (Premier League)
2020-11-30T07:00:00.000Z · Okzhetpes 1-3 Ordabasy (Premier League)
2020-03-07T09:00:00.000Z · Okzhetpes 0-1 Ordabasy (Premier League)
2019-08-17T11:00:00.000Z · Okzhetpes 0-4 Ordabasy (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ordabasy	27	20	4	3	35	64
2	Kairat Almaty	26	18	6	2	33	60
3	FC Astana	26	14	6	6	16	48
4	Okzhetpes	28	14	6	8	5	48
5	Aktobe	28	13	6	9	7	45
6	Yelimay Semey	28	12	8	8	2	44
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	28	12	4	12	1	40
8	Ulytau	28	9	8	11	-7	35
9	Kaspiy	27	9	5	13	-8	32
10	Zhenys	28	8	8	12	-9	32
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	28	7	7	14	-10	28
12	Atyrau	27	5	12	10	-7	27
13	Irtysh	27	6	8	13	-11	26
14	Zhetysu	28	6	7	15	-18	25
15	Altay	28	5	9	14	-14	24
16	Kaisar	28	4	12	12	-15	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ordabasy win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.