Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas · Analysis updated 03:06 UTC
Olancho vs Estrella Roja Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Olancho and 0.90 for Estrella Roja, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Olancho the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Olancho win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olancho home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olancho to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 27% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Olancho and 0.90 for Estrella Roja, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–010.0%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Olancho
- 2026-10-11T23:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Independiente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Génesis · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T23:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Espana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Choloma · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T01:30:00.000Z · A vs CD Motagua · 1-2 (L)
Estrella Roja
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Espana | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | CD Olimpia | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | CD Motagua | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 5 | Atlético Choloma | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Olancho | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Estrella Roja | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | Lobos Upnfm | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Génesis | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Atletico Independiente | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 11 | Platense FC | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Olancho win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.