Olaria vs Bangu Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Olaria and 0.52 for Bangu, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Olaria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Olaria win

64.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.63 – 0.52

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Olaria home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olaria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 24% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Olaria and 0.52 for Bangu, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 37% and both teams to score at 33%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.

Match result (1X2)

Olaria win65%

Draw24%

Bangu win12%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

1–018.9%
2–015.4%
0–011.6%
1–19.9%
3–08.4%

Recent form

Olaria

2026-08-12T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Nova Iguaçu · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-05T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Nova Iguaçu · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-22T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Bangu · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-15T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Bangu · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-04T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Bonsucesso · 0-1 (L)

Bangu

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Copa Rio table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Boavista SC	8	5	2	1	11	17
2	Sampaio Corrêa RJ	8	5	2	1	5	17
3	Nova Iguaçu	8	3	3	2	1	12
4	Olaria	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	São Gonçalo EC RJ	6	2	3	1	1	9
6	Madureira	8	1	5	2	-3	8
7	Pérolas Negras	4	2	1	1	6	7
8	América RJ	4	2	1	1	5	7
9	CFRJ / Maricá	4	2	1	1	1	7
10	Resende	4	2	0	2	6	6
11	Bonsucesso	4	1	3	0	2	6
12	Americano Campos	4	1	2	1	0	5
13	Portuguesa RJ	4	1	2	1	0	5
14	São Cristóvão RJ	2	0	2	0	0	2
15	CEAC / Araruama	4	0	2	2	-5	2
16	Serrano RJ	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Macaé	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Volta Redonda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Bangu	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Cabofriense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
21	Duque de Caxias	2	0	0	2	-6	0
22	Goytacaz	2	0	0	2	-6	0
23	SE Belford Roxo	2	0	0	2	-9	0
24	Santa Cruz RJ	2	0	0	2	-9	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Olaria win, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.