· Analysis updated 00:11 UTC
Old Road vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.93 expected goals for Old Road and 2.29 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 5.22. That distribution gives Old Road the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 85% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Old Road win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
2.93 – 2.29
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Old Road home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aston Villa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Old Road to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 17% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.93 goals for Old Road and 2.29 for Aston Villa, a combined 5.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.1%
- 3–25.9%
- 2–15.3%
- 3–15.2%
- 2–34.6%
Recent form
Old Road
- 2026-04-29T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Grenades · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Jennings United · 14-0 (W)
- 2026-04-04T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Attacking Saints · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-03-28T20:15:00.000Z · A vs All Saints United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-22T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 4-5 (L)
Aston Villa
- 2026-04-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Green City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-18T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Jennings United · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-04-11T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Grenades · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-04-04T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Ottos Rangers · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-28T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Attacking Saints · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Green City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | All Saints United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Hoppers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Pigotts Bullets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Garden Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Grenades | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Freemansville | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Old Road | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Potters Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Old Road win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 85% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.