· Analysis updated 20:18 UTC
Oleksandria II vs Penuel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Oleksandria II and 0.74 for Penuel, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Oleksandria II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oleksandria II win
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oleksandria II home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Penuel away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oleksandria II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 22% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Oleksandria II and 0.74 for Penuel, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 2–012.9%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.0%
Recent form
Oleksandria II
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Karbon Cherkasy · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rebel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlet · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Penuel · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lozova · 1-1 (D)
Penuel
- 2026-10-25T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Metalurh Zaporizhya · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T09:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Poltava 2 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Karbon Cherkasy · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlet · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T11:15:00.000Z · A vs Lozova · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Druha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bratslav Vinnytsia | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 1 | Karbon Cherkasy | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Dnister Zalishchyky | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Lozova | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Nyva Vinnytsya | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Rebel | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | Vilkhivtsi | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 4 | SC Poltava 2 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 5 | Podillya Khmelnytskyi | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 5 | Trostianets | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Nyva Ternopil II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 6 | Atlet | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Skala 1911 Stryi | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | Oleksandria II | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Dinaz Vyshhorod | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 8 | Metalurh Zaporizhya | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Ruh Lviv | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 9 | Penuel | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oleksandria II win, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.