Oleksandria vs Lokomotiv Kyiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Oleksandria and 0.48 for Lokomotiv Kyiv, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Oleksandria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Oleksandria win

56.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.28 – 0.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Oleksandria home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotiv Kyiv away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oleksandria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 30% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Oleksandria and 0.48 for Lokomotiv Kyiv, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Oleksandria win57%

Draw30%

Lokomotiv Kyiv win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals52%

Over 2.5 goals26%

Over 3.5 goals10%

Both teams to score27%

Correct score

1–022.2%
0–017.4%
2–014.1%
1–110.5%
0–18.3%

Recent form

Oleksandria

2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Kolos Kovalivka II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Yarud Mariupol' · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Probiy Horodenka · 1-1 (D)

Lokomotiv Kyiv

2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Oleksandria · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Polissya II · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Probiy Horodenka · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Kulykiv · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T10:30:00.000Z · H vs SK Poltava · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Persha Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	13	7	4	2	7	25
2	SK Poltava	13	7	3	3	13	24
3	Yarud Mariupol'	13	7	3	3	7	24
4	Oleksandria	13	6	5	2	8	23
5	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	7	2	3	5	23
6	Kulykiv	13	6	3	4	9	21
7	Nyva Ternopil	13	4	6	3	4	18
8	Lokomotiv Kyiv	13	4	5	4	1	17
9	Inhulets	12	5	2	5	-3	17
10	Prykarpattia	13	4	4	5	-2	16
11	Metal Kharkiv	13	4	3	6	-3	15
12	UCSA	13	3	5	5	-3	14
13	Kolos Kovalivka II	13	4	1	8	-10	13
14	Chernihiv	11	2	4	5	-4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	13	2	3	8	-20	9
16	Polissya II	13	1	5	7	-9	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Oleksandria win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.