Estádio José Arcanjo · Referee Pedro Contumélias · Analysis updated 04:42 UTC
Olhanense vs Vasco da Gama Vidigueira Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Olhanense and 1.07 for Vasco da Gama Vidigueira, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Olhanense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Olhanense win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olhanense home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olhanense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Olhanense and 1.07 for Vasco da Gama Vidigueira, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–09.3%
- 3–16.3%
Recent form
Olhanense
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oliveira Hospital · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portel · 1-0 (W)
- 2023-04-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lagos · 1-0 (W)
- 2023-04-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Imortal Albufeira · 0-2 (L)
- 2023-04-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Praiense · 0-5 (L)
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventude Évora · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sintrense · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Portimonense B · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Malveira · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sintrense | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Imortal Albufeira | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 3 | Real | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Lajense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | FC Serpa | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Alcochetense | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Amora | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Juventude Évora | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | 1º Dezembro | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | Lagoa | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Santa Clara B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Portel | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 13 | Vitoria Setubal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 14 | Aljustrelense | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Olhanense win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.