Olimpia Elbląg vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Olimpia Elbląg and 1.80 for Lechia T. Mazowiecki, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Olimpia Elbląg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

60.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Olimpia Elbląg home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lechia T. Mazowiecki away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olimpia Elbląg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Olimpia Elbląg and 1.80 for Lechia T. Mazowiecki, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Olimpia Elbląg win39%

Draw22%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–18.9%
1–28.0%
2–18.0%
2–27.2%
0–14.9%

Recent form

Olimpia Elbląg

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mławianka Mława · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Łomża · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Weszlo · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pelikan Łowicz · 1-0 (W)

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Widzew II · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia Zambrów · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia Elbląg · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Weszlo	13	10	2	1	17	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	13	8	4	1	14	28
3	Swit	13	7	2	4	5	23
4	Pelikan Łowicz	13	7	2	4	4	23
5	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	13	6	3	4	5	21
6	Wisła Płock II	13	6	3	4	4	21
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	13	6	3	4	4	21
8	Warta Sieradz	13	6	3	4	2	21
9	Olimpia Zambrów	13	6	2	5	1	20
10	Olimpia Elbląg	13	5	2	6	-3	17
11	Jagiellonia II	13	4	4	5	-1	16
12	Widzew II	13	4	3	6	0	15
13	ŁKS Łódź II	13	4	3	6	-1	15
14	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	13	4	2	7	-5	14
15	Mławianka Mława	13	4	1	8	-10	13
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	13	3	3	7	-6	12
17	Troszyn	13	2	5	6	-12	11
18	Łomża	13	0	3	10	-18	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.