Olimpia Elbląg vs Wigry Suwałki Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Olimpia Elbląg and 1.45 for Wigry Suwałki, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Wigry Suwałki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Olimpia Elbląg home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wigry Suwałki away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wigry Suwałki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 32% / 26% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Olimpia Elbląg and 1.45 for Wigry Suwałki, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Olimpia Elbląg win32%

Draw26%

Wigry Suwałki win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
0–110.0%
1–28.9%
1–08.4%
2–17.5%

Recent form

Olimpia Elbląg

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mławianka Mława · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Łomża · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Weszlo · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pelikan Łowicz · 1-0 (W)

Wigry Suwałki

2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Weszlo · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pelikan Łowicz · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Warta Sieradz · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Płock II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Weszlo	14	10	2	2	14	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	14	9	4	1	17	31
3	Swit	14	8	2	4	8	26
4	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	14	7	3	4	7	24
5	Pelikan Łowicz	14	7	3	4	4	24
6	Wisła Płock II	14	6	4	4	4	22
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	14	6	4	4	4	22
8	Warta Sieradz	14	6	4	4	2	22
9	Olimpia Zambrów	14	6	3	5	1	21
10	Olimpia Elbląg	14	5	3	6	-3	18
11	Jagiellonia II	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Widzew II	13	4	3	6	0	15
13	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	14	4	3	7	-3	15
14	ŁKS Łódź II	14	4	3	7	-4	15
15	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	14	4	2	8	-7	14
16	Mławianka Mława	14	4	2	8	-10	14
17	Troszyn	14	2	5	7	-15	11
18	Łomża	13	0	3	10	-18	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.