Stadion Sportowy Wda · Analysis updated 08:48 UTC
Olimpia Grudziądz vs Nieciecza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Olimpia Grudziądz and 4.00 for Nieciecza, a combined total of 6.75. That distribution gives Nieciecza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 94% for over 2.5 goals and 90% for both teams to score, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Nieciecza win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 4.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nieciecza away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nieciecza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 25% / 14% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for Olimpia Grudziądz and 4.00 for Nieciecza, a combined 6.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 94% and both teams to score at 90%, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 5%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–34.7%
- 2–44.7%
- 3–34.3%
- 3–44.3%
- 2–53.8%
Recent form
Olimpia Grudziądz
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Chojniczanka Chojnice · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sokół Kleczew · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Śląsk Wrocław II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Zabrze II · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 1-3 (L)
Nieciecza
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Cracovia Krakow · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Mielec · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lechia Gdansk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T17:47:00.000Z · A vs Wigry Suwałki · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nieciecza win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 90% and over 2.5 goals at 94%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.