MOSiR · Analysis updated 06:49 UTC
Olimpia Grudziądz vs Podhale Nowy Targ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Olimpia Grudziądz and 1.45 for Podhale Nowy Targ, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Olimpia Grudziądz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Olimpia Grudziądz win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Podhale Nowy Targ away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olimpia Grudziądz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Olimpia Grudziądz and 1.45 for Podhale Nowy Targ, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Olimpia Grudziądz
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Chojniczanka Chojnice · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sokół Kleczew · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Śląsk Wrocław II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Zabrze II · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 1-3 (L)
Podhale Nowy Targ
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Lechia Zielona Góra · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chojniczanka Chojnice · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Legia Warszawa II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
II Liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 29 |
| 2 | Tychy 71 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 26 |
| 3 | Górnik Łęczna | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 19 |
| 7 | Hutnik Kraków | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 9 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Avia Świdnik | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 17 |
| 11 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 12 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 13 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 14 | Legia Warszawa II | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 13 |
| 15 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 | Sokół Kleczew | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -13 | 9 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Olimpia Grudziądz win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.