Estadio Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb · Analysis updated 17:18 UTC
Olimpia vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.49 expected goals for Olimpia and 0.44 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Olimpia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Olimpia win
82.3% probability
Expected goals
2.49 – 0.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olimpia home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Club Sp. San Lorenzo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olimpia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 13% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.49 goals for Olimpia and 0.44 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–016.6%
- 3–013.8%
- 1–013.4%
- 4–08.6%
- 2–17.3%
Recent form
Olimpia
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Ameliano · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T22:20:00.000Z · H vs 2 de Mayo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Rubio NU · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-06T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Asuncion · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-01T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Luqueno · 1-1 (D)
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
- 2026-10-25T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T22:20:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Luqueno · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Porteno · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Trinidense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 33 |
| 2 | Sportivo Trinidense | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 29 |
| 5 | 2 de Mayo | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 24 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -13 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 16 | 0 | 4 | 12 | -21 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Olimpia win, at 82.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.