Estadio Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb · Referee Blas Romero, Paraguay · Analysis updated 14:34 UTC
Olimpia vs Rubio NU Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.22 expected goals for Olimpia and 0.64 for Rubio NU, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Olimpia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Olimpia win
73.5% probability
Expected goals
2.22 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olimpia home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rubio NU away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.1%
- 1–012.7%
- 3–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.1%
Recent form
Olimpia
- 2026-09-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertad Asuncion · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Luqueno · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Trinidense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Guarani · 1-1 (D)
Rubio NU
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Ameliano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Porteno · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T19:30:00.000Z · H vs 2 de Mayo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Porteno · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · Olimpia 5-0 Rubio NU (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2026-04-12T21:15:00.000Z · Olimpia 2-0 Rubio NU (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2026-02-14T21:30:00.000Z · Olimpia 0-0 Rubio NU (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2017-10-18T23:10:00.000Z · Olimpia 0-0 Rubio NU (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2017-08-06T21:10:00.000Z · Olimpia 3-0 Rubio NU (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2017-05-27T22:00:00.000Z · Olimpia 1-0 Rubio NU (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2017-03-18T21:00:00.000Z · Olimpia 1-1 Rubio NU (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2016-10-01T23:10:00.000Z · Olimpia 3-1 Rubio NU (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2016-07-16T20:00:00.000Z · Olimpia 0-0 Rubio NU (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2016-05-15T21:30:00.000Z · Olimpia 4-1 Rubio NU (Division Profesional - Apertura)
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 29 |
| 3 | 2 de Mayo | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 27 |
| 5 | Libertad Asuncion | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 27 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 22 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | -12 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -12 | 11 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Olimpia win, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.