Estadio Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb · Referee J. Benitez · Analysis updated 08:51 UTC
Olimpia vs Sportivo Luqueno Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Olimpia and 1.10 for Sportivo Luqueno, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Olimpia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Olimpia win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olimpia home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sportivo Luqueno away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Olimpia
- 2026-09-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertad Asuncion · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Luqueno · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Trinidense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Guarani · 1-1 (D)
Sportivo Luqueno
- 2026-10-01T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Guarani · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Recoleta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Ameliano · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · Olimpia 2-1 Sportivo Luqueno (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2026-03-17T23:30:00.000Z · Olimpia 1-0 Sportivo Luqueno (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2025-11-21T20:00:00.000Z · Olimpia 4-2 Sportivo Luqueno (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2025-08-30T21:30:00.000Z · Olimpia 2-0 Sportivo Luqueno (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2025-04-19T23:15:00.000Z · Olimpia 3-1 Sportivo Luqueno (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2025-02-09T21:15:00.000Z · Olimpia 1-0 Sportivo Luqueno (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2024-11-28T21:00:00.000Z · Olimpia 1-0 Sportivo Luqueno (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2024-09-15T22:30:00.000Z · Olimpia 4-3 Sportivo Luqueno (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2024-05-22T21:30:00.000Z · Olimpia 2-0 Sportivo Luqueno (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2024-03-02T23:30:00.000Z · Olimpia 1-0 Sportivo Luqueno (Division Profesional - Apertura)
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 30 |
| 3 | Nacional Asuncion | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | 2 de Mayo | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 27 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -13 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -12 | 11 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Olimpia win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.