Stadion Stozice · Analysis updated 20:45 UTC
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Olimpija Ljubljana and 0.85 for Celje, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Olimpija Ljubljana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Olimpija Ljubljana win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olimpija Ljubljana home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Celje away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–010.3%
- 0–19.0%
Recent form
Olimpija Ljubljana
- 2026-10-01T10:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Slaven Belupo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bravo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Koper · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Brinje-Grosuplje · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Radomlje · 0-0 (D)
Celje
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Aluminij · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mura · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Bravo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Koper · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T18:15:00.000Z · Olimpija Ljubljana 0-1 Celje (1. SNL)
- 2026-04-15T16:30:00.000Z · Olimpija Ljubljana 0-2 Celje (1. SNL)
- 2026-02-08T14:00:00.000Z · Olimpija Ljubljana 3-1 Celje (1. SNL)
- 2025-12-04T17:00:00.000Z · Olimpija Ljubljana 1-0 Celje (Cup)
- 2025-10-18T18:15:00.000Z · Olimpija Ljubljana 0-0 Celje (1. SNL)
- 2025-08-03T18:15:00.000Z · Olimpija Ljubljana 0-5 Celje (1. SNL)
- 2025-04-27T15:30:00.000Z · Olimpija Ljubljana 3-3 Celje (1. SNL)
- 2025-04-24T16:00:00.000Z · Olimpija Ljubljana 1-2 Celje (Cup)
- 2025-03-02T14:00:00.000Z · Olimpija Ljubljana 2-0 Celje (1. SNL)
- 2024-11-03T14:00:00.000Z · Olimpija Ljubljana 1-0 Celje (1. SNL)
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 23 |
| 2 | Koper | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Bravo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Nafta | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Celje | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Aluminij | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 | Mura | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | Radomlje | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Olimpija Ljubljana win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.