Stadion Stozice · Referee M. Tozan · Analysis updated 14:03 UTC
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Maribor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Olimpija Ljubljana and 1.31 for Maribor, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Maribor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.3% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.31
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olimpija Ljubljana home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maribor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maribor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 29% / 28% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Olimpija Ljubljana and 1.31 for Maribor, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 0–112.9%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–28.5%
Recent form
Olimpija Ljubljana
- 2026-10-01T10:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Slaven Belupo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bravo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Koper · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Brinje-Grosuplje · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Radomlje · 0-0 (D)
Maribor
- 2026-09-19T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Aluminij · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Radomlje · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Mura · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Nafta · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Bravo · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 23 |
| 2 | Koper | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Bravo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Nafta | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Celje | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Aluminij | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 | Mura | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | Radomlje | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.