Olimpik-Mobiuz vs FarDu Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Olimpik-Mobiuz and 1.33 for FarDu, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Olimpik-Mobiuz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Olimpik-Mobiuz home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FarDu away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Olimpik-Mobiuz win40%

Draw25%

FarDu win35%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–112.0%
1–09.0%
2–18.7%
0–18.3%
1–27.9%

Recent form

Olimpik-Mobiuz

2026-08-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aral · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gazalkent · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shortan · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Jayxun · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pakhtakor II · 4-1 (W)

FarDu

2026-09-22T11:00:00.000Z · H vs BuxDu · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Respublika FA · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Aral · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gazalkent · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Shortan · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-29T12:00:00.000Z · Olimpik-Mobiuz 1-2 FarDu (Pro League A)
2025-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · Olimpik-Mobiuz 2-3 FarDu (Pro League A)
2025-08-11T14:00:00.000Z · Olimpik-Mobiuz 2-1 FarDu (Pro League A)
2025-05-18T12:30:00.000Z · Olimpik-Mobiuz 1-0 FarDu (Pro League A)
2025-04-05T12:00:00.000Z · Olimpik-Mobiuz 0-0 FarDu (Pro League A)

Pro League A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Aral	23	18	4	1	35	58
2	Metalourg	23	14	5	4	34	47
3	Shortan	23	14	4	5	17	46
4	Gazalkent	23	12	5	6	16	41
5	FarDu	23	11	7	5	6	40
6	Lochin	23	11	6	6	8	39
7	Kattaqurgon	22	11	4	7	7	37
8	Olimpik-Mobiuz	22	10	6	6	15	36
9	Respublika FA	23	8	5	10	-2	29
10	Yaypan	23	7	4	12	-16	25
11	Jayxun	23	7	3	13	-8	24
12	Pakhtakor II	23	4	1	18	-33	13
13	BuxDu	23	4	1	18	-34	13
14	Qiziriq	23	1	1	21	-45	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.